Alek Ploetz's Blog

The data is starting to show the effects of the expiration of the Home Buyer Tax Credit.  For the year (thru the end of April) sales are UP 4.1%, however, for the same period in 2010, DOWN 43.5%!  The tax credit really did bring people to the market. Here are this week’s numbers:Pending Sales: 958 newly pended deals for the week.  That is the highest 1 week number since May 8, 2010.New Listings: 1704 homes entered the market for sale, up 7.7% from last year.  This amount is close to historic averages.  In 2010 overall listing activity was down 33% from “normal”.Active Listings: There are currently 23,739 homes for sale in the metro area.  That represents a 10.1% decrease from last year.

On June 04, 2011 at 13:00 PM, you are invited to an Open House at 1000 Springhill Drive in Burnsville. If you are looking for a Resale – single family property in this area, don™t miss this rare opportunity to visit this magnificent property. For a preview of this Resale – single family property, check out my site at http://www.alekploetz.com. Please do not hesitate to Contact Me if you have any questions or wish to schedule a private showing.

Due to a lag in reporting, we have entered into a transition period that still may be influenced by last year’s tax credit expiration.   This lag in reporting of sales from last year may account for some of the numbers.   Here are the numbers:

For the week, Pending Sales declined 27.7% to 819 transactions.   This marks the 22nd consecutive week of decline for pending sales.

Active Listings increased by 210 to 23475 listings, a decline of 10.3% from the same period last year.

New Listings for the week were up 14.5% to 1774 homes.

Listings in the month of April spent 152 Days On Market, an increase of 20.6% from last year.

% of List Price was 90.1%, down 3.7% from last year.

The Affordability Index rose to 236, an increase of 17.1% from last year.

There are currently 5.88 homes per buyer, a decrease of 13.1% from last year.   This represents 8.2 months inventory on the market, an 11.1% increase.

In the coming weeks, pending sales should rise slightly over last years numbers due to very soft numbers following the end of the homebuyer tax credit programs.

To view the full report from SPAAR:http://www.spaar.com/_uls/resources/SPAAR_WMAR_2011_05-16.pdf

Due to a lag in reporting, we have entered into a transition period that still may be influenced by last year’s tax credit expiration.   This lag in reporting of sales from last year may account for some of the numbers.   Here are the numbers:

For the week, Pending Sales declined 27.7% to 819 transactions.   This marks the 22nd consecutive week of decline for pending sales.

Active Listings increased by 210 to 23475 listings, a decline of 10.3% from the same period last year.

New Listings for the week were up 14.5% to 1774 homes.

Listings in the month of April spent 152 Days On Market, an increase of 20.6% from last year.

% of List Price was 90.1%, down 3.7% from last year.

The Affordability Index rose to 236, an increase of 17.1% from last year.

There are currently 5.88 homes per buyer, a decrease of 13.1% from last year.   This represents 8.2 months inventory on the market, an 11.1% increase.

In the coming weeks, pending sales should rise slightly over last years numbers due to very soft numbers following the end of the homebuyer tax credit programs.

To view the full report from SPAAR:http://www.spaar.com/_uls/resources/SPAAR_WMAR_2011_05-16.pdf

This week’s numbers represent the final time the data will be compared to the Federal First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit.   One year ago, the tax credit expired.   It is commonly accepted that the tax credit created activity that would otherwise have happened.   My guess would be that the numbers for next week will show flat to slight gains as they compare to the same period last year.   Lets look at the numbers:

New listings were down 3.9% from the same week last year to a total of 1733 new listings for the week.

Pending sales were down 37.4% from the same time last year to 920 newly pended transactions.

Total inventory declined 10.8% to 23265 total listings in the 13 county metro area.   This represents 8.2 months of supply, and 5.88 homes per buyer.

Next week’s data will be a better indicator of what the market is doing since the tax credit fueled market will no longer be used to compare market progress.   I expect in the comming weeks to see an increase in pending sales and a decline in total inventory fueled by higher consumer confidence, repeatedly strong jobs numbers, and local decline in unemployment.  

As we enter the post tax credit era, remember to check back each week to see how the market truly compares to the prior year in a more “apples to apples” market.

To view the data from SPAAR: http://www.spaar.com/_uls/resources/SPAAR_WMAR_2011_05-09.pdf

Each week I  will be looking  at the Twin Cities real estate sales statistics to provide buyers, sellers, and homeowners a look into the market.   Everyone wants to know if, or when, the bottom of the market will be reached.   The funny thing about the bottom is that no one knows when the bottom has come, untill prices begin to rise.   Reviewing statistics each week can help identify many of the factors that will indicate where home prices are going.

These figures are found in the “Weekly Market Statistics” report found on the SPAAR website for the week ending 23 April 2011.

The first figure is New Listings.   There were 1487 newly listed properties in the Twin Cities area for the week.   That was 30.7% fewer listings than the same period last year, and the 16th straight week of double digit year over year declines.

The next factor in the market is Pending Sales.   There were 886 sales moved to Pending Status, a 25.2% decline from the same period last year.   There have been 10 straight weeks of double digit year over year declines.

In all, there are 22917 Active Listings in the MLS.   13% fewer listings than the same period last year.

For the month of March (latest numbers available) the average Days on Market for a listing was 152, and the property sold for 88.6% of the list price.

Current housing supply numbers totaled 7.7 months, or 5.04 homes per buyer in the market.

The median home price in the Twin Cities area was $166500.00.   The largest gain in pending sale increases was in million dollar homes, up 19.8% to 290 homes.

The numbers for this period show a few things.   First, inventory is down from last year.   Supply and demand tells us that as supply decreases, prices should rise.   That being said, as prices rise homes may flood the market again causing gains to drop again.   This seems to be the cycle that we have been in for some time now.   We also can assume that the higher priced homes in the market are beginning to sell.   It could be that the economy has less of an effect on the buyers of homes in this range, or it could be that as a slow moving recovery takes hold move up buyers are finally reaching the top price bracket.

Each week I will be updating the stats to show what the market is doing based solely on the numbers, with no spin.   I think that the numbers as we move to summer will show more concrete signs of a recovery.   Check back next week to what the market has done.

To view the statistics for yourself follow the link: http://www.spaar.com/_uls/resources/SPAAR_WMAR_2011_05-02.pdf

On October 17, 2010 at 12:00 PM, you are invited to an Open House at 1106 4260 Meghan Lane in Eagan. If you are looking for a Resale – condo-townhouse property in this area, don™t miss this rare opportunity to visit this magnificent property. For a preview of this Resale – condo-townhouse property, check out my site at http://www.alekploetz.com. Please do not hesitate to Contact Me if you have any questions or wish to schedule a private showing.

On August 22, 2010 at 13:00 PM, you are invited to an Open House at 1106 4260 Meghan Lane in Eagan. If you are looking for a Resale – condo-townhouse property in this area, don™t miss this rare opportunity to visit this magnificent property. For a preview of this Resale – condo-townhouse property, check out my site at http://www.alekploetz.com. Please do not hesitate to Contact Me if you have any questions or wish to schedule a private showing.

On June 27, 2010 at 12:00 PM, you are invited to an Open House at 4260 Meghan Lane in Eagan. If you are looking for a Resale – condo-townhouse property in this area, don™t miss this rare opportunity to visit this magnificent property. For a preview of this Resale – condo-townhouse property, check out my site at alekploetz.topproducerwebsite.com. Please do not hesitate to Contact Me if you have any questions or wish to schedule a private showing.

On May 16, 2010 at 13:00 PM, you are invited to an Open House at 4260 Meghan Lane in Eagan. If you are looking for a Resale – condo-townhouse property in this area, don™t miss this rare opportunity to visit this magnificent property. For a preview of this Resale – condo-townhouse property, check out my site at alekploetz.topproducerwebsite.com. Please do not hesitate to Contact Me if you have any questions or wish to schedule a private showing.